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A former special forces colonel, government minister Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in comments that go beyond previous admonitions by his boss, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was stark language from the middle-aged born in Scotland MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of minister for the military.

A Swift Political Ascent

Naturally for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the experience and political instincts to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the most recent general election. He was promoted later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a apprehension about the meteoric ascent of a star performer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”