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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.