Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released papers reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper adds: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We must devise a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.